B5: TMOS - Economic Viability & Related Topics

[JJCoolbean]

This thread is intended to be a discussion regarding the viability of Babylon 5: TMoS in terms of it's economic viability within the US market and abroad, as well as related topics. (Note: Obviously this is a topic of mere speculation. Don't expect exact figures because, when you're debating in hypotheticals, specifically without inside financial reports and marketing analysis information, little is concrete. I guess everyone that takes a stab at this topic could type "IMO" after each sentence or do some stupid smiley icon crap, but life is too short! Now, take a deep breath - maybe sing the Telepath song softly to yourself if that helps. Remember that it's all in fun and nobody is saying that JMS sucks or that Babylon 5 is for weenies. Alright, you may begin...)

From Colony Earth:

Just a side note to those who think a film isn't viable. According to Box Office Magazine, if you take the domestic gross of any film, you can then triple it, at least, when adding in foreign box office and DVD sales to estimate the film's income. That also does not account for tie-in sales and marketing. So if you figure at the least, 10 million people in the US alone go see the film, that's 10 million times an average of $8.00/seat. That comes to $80 million gross domestically alone. Now triple that to include foreign box office and DVD sales, and a B5 feature film could and will probably bring in approximately $240 million gross (and those are conservative figures).

Can we say...hello success? Even ST: Nemesis, though not considered a huge box office hit by a long shot here, ended up more than doubling its cost in the long run when Paramount added foreign and DVD into the mix. (Which I guess expains why they're apparently letting Berman do another one -- *shudders at the thought*.)

Yes, what Box Office Magazine states is, in my six year experience in the industry and from reading the trades, the general "rule of thumb" regarding the blockbuster type of studio releases, but genre does factor in as well. For instance, most Comedies and Dramas usually perform drastically better domestically than aboard while Action and Sci-fi perform, generally, quite well as exports. Yet like Star Trek, Babylon 5 may not do nearly as well internationally as in the US.

While there are Trekkies (sorry, TrekkERS) around the world, the Star Trek brand name has MUCH greater appeal in America than elsewhere, so the US box office has always been substantially bigger. That's why, relating this to Nemesis, the film was deemed a bomb after it's disappointing US release and before it was even released internationally. (No, I am not saying that Star Trek is better than Babylon 5 because it's more famous! Again, return to the Telepath song. Maybe eat a donut if that helps.)

Frankly, TMoS may have a tough time even getting booked in theaters around the world unless it's just a kick-butt movie with excellent special effects or has some obvious big star attached to it - Jerry Doyle ain't gonna to sell tickets in Italy. (Do any of you live in a country where more people are aware of the Babylon 5 name over Star Trek? Star Trek re-runs still air around the world (at usually late-night hours) but are they currently running Babylon 5 in China? How about right now in Germany or France?) It's possible that, if you're in Europe and you don't live in England you may not get a chance to see TMoS until it arrives on DVD - it may not even make it to you if theater owners don't see an obvious money maker. Or maybe it will only be shown in a few places with a limited release in the way that anime films, a genre that, overall, has at least as many hardcore fans as Babylon 5, are released theatrically in Europe/US. (No, anime is not a PERFECT example, specifically demographically, but life's too short to worry about such things. Again, Star Trek is a better example demographically, but I was commenting specifically on how a limited Babylon 5 release might work in Europe, Australia, Canada and, of course, Swaziland. With the Telepath song again buzzing in our heads, we continue...)

Now if Warner Brothers does decide to spend BIG money and treat TMOS as a blockbuster, then it might have a chance at wide appeal internationally, but that would be a BIG risk. Babylon 5 seems to have a history of being under-funded and I'd be surprised if they put much more than US $40 million into it. That's about the money you'd put into a comedy with a big star.

Sometimes studios will spend an amount equal to the total production cost on advertising, but I would guess that Warner Brothers wouldn't spend nearly that much. They would spend some in choice places, but even Trek saves money in this area. With so many Trek movies behind them, Paramount probably knows exactly who to target with ads quite effectively. WB will probably follow Paramount's model. So you'll see ads in the US on Sci-Fi Channel and during Enterprise (if it's still on the air then) and the other usual suspects. If the box office is higher than expected, expect a greater media saturation of ads in the weeks to follow.

Even in the US, I, respectfully, think it will be tough for B5: TMoS to reach 10 million patrons as ColonyEarth speculates. The DVD's have sold well, but the cross-over viewers, or the casual viewers, did not tune into The Legend Of The Rangers and the reruns on the Sci-Fi Channel in any great numbers - so does that mean that B5 has the hardcore group (DVD buyers) but not much cross-over appeal (low TV ratings)? If the first three DVD sets made $70 million for Warner Brothers, as JMS says, how many individual boxes were actually sold if you deduct the amount made per box set? And how many people bought all three seasons? Basically, it's not like 70 million individuals each bought one season on DVD. So how big is the fanbase, really? Trying to be objective here, if I were an investor I would want to be cautious when it comes to budget.

Also remember that Babylon 5 did not sell as well as (at least) the first two Trek series on DVD (I don't know about DS9 or Voyager). The ratings for shows like Deep Space Nine and Voyager were, with few exceptions, higher than B5, plus you have the fame of the earlier two Trek series. Since Paramount kept the Trek budgets at about US$60 million, I can't see Warner Brothers going even that high.

Personally, if the budget were around US$40 million, I think JMS could still make a hell of a movie. It's not like he has had anything like that to work with in the past. Plus, if the budget were more modest, then the financial recoup need not be so high, so maybe he won't get as many notes and whispers in the ear from higher-ups. If, when said and done, B5: TMoS grossed US $100 million I can't see how Warner Brothers would be disappointed, and we could possibly get at least one more, equally modest priced sequel. ($100 million is the magic "blockbuster" gross in Hollywood.) If it's US $80 million, that too could be considered a success, but since sequels rarely outgross first films, a possible sequel becomes a bit more touch and go.

Or JMS could just "re-imagine" Babylon 5 as a buddy cop movie starring Vin Diesel and a talking hamburger. They could be on the trail of a gang of jewel thieves, each with a handlebar moustage, who plan to take over the world because... Well, why not? Sprinkle in some T&A, maybe a song about Telepaths and presto: "Babylon 5: Titty Midgets On Stilts - The Musical" Now THAT would sell in Swaziland!

IMO :devil: IMO

 

[channe]

JMS said something a while ago that jives with my personal philosophy regarding the movie:

B5 was made; anything else is just gravy.

It's been long enough that I don't care if nothing ever comes out of the B5 universe ever again. I have my episodes. I don't care if it's "economically viable;" just the fact that it got made is a miracle and one we should welcome. And if nothing comes of it, well... who cares? We'll continue living, and loving B5.

 

[kin_of_zathras]

I just really want it to succeed. I don't care if I have to wait for the DVD release to see it in South Africa.

Unless this link is wrong
http://www.videobusiness.com/yer2003_top_selling_TV_on_DVD.asp
I don't see where the $70m came from.

B5 has always been very popular overseas, compared to the US. See JMS's early posts about the Gathering laserdisc selling well in Japan which lead to him doing Voice in the Wilderness as a 2 parter.

 

[Kribu]

I'd agree .. seems that B5 is/has been rather popular in quite a few countries around Europe too. As a fringe scifi show, perhaps, but at least among scifi fans, it seems to be fairly known.

(Do any of you live in a country where more people are aware of the Babylon 5 name over Star Trek? Star Trek re-runs still air around the world (at usually late-night hours) but are they currently running Babylon 5 in China? How about right now in Germany or France?)

I can't say anything specific about awareness of course, but here in Estonia all of B5 was aired a couple of years ago on one of the local channels, while none of any Star Trek has ever been on TV here at all. The latest couple of Trek movies were released here .. I didn't go to see them, and I can't say much about attendance, but I assume there is also Trek awareness. More people would realistically have had a chance to see Babylon 5 than Star Trek though.

There certainly is some B5 awareness here even among the people who didn't watch the show/are not scifi fans. Heck .. every single person in my office at least knew about the show when I turned up at work wearing a B5TV.com T-shirt.

 

[GeoKuutio]

Back in Finland, there haven't been anything Star Trek related on TV for years. There was this ST:ToS running on local SubTV, but since only about 500000 are able too view that channel out of 5.2 million, and SubTV isn't popular... Don't know. I think that when TV2 aired the whole B5, movies and the Crusade, it was more popular than ST. Anyway, my friends know more of B5 than of ST here. And they're not sci-fi people.. To some extent, yes, in Finland B5 is known better by details when compared to ST.

 

[StarStuff]

If TMoS is about the Techno Mages then it may do really well. Two of the more sucessful recent movies, "Harry Potter" and "The Lord of the Rings," also had magical characters. If enough money is put into the production of TMoS we may have a mega hit!

 

[Sindatur]

From what I recall hearing, B5 actually seems to do better internationally than it does in the US.

JMS produced 22 episodes (at 43 or 44 minutes each) with incredible special effects for about 20 million dollars each season, I believe. I would think a $40 Million budget would be more than enough for JMS to do everything he wanted in a feature film. The American audience doesn't seem to be as much into something deep like B5, as Europe and other International locations. The American audience seems to be more happy with empty, single layered, TV/Movies. (Note: What I mean by this is that a higher percentage of the population in the US, seems more interested in more watered down fair. Of course the Hard-core B5 audience now expects B5 quality out of their SciFi fair)

So, frankly, I would expect International Ticket sales to be better than Domestic Sales.

 

[colonyearth]

How do I respond?

First of all...on the DVD's, that was JMS stating that from direct knowledge given to him by WB. That $70 million doesn't even include the full sales, in all markets, and obviously not all 5 seasons. From that amount alone, with little advertising done by WB, we've got $70 million. This clearly tells WB that there is money to be made in B5...and that's what counts. If WB weren't impressed by the numbers, and think it was a viable universe, we wouldn't be getting anything else...much less the "in spades" comment by JMS.

Remember, B5 has an international fan base that's rather extensive. Unlike ST, B5 has an epic feel and story, touching on mythos and legend...which has a much larger ppeal internationally than the slowly dieing, more episodic Trek (which has already lost a large part of its original mass fan base). The most popular Trek films were part of a somewhat continuing storyline and feel (2,3,4 and 6). In short, B5 is a different beast which a much broader international appeal contained within its story and universe.

As for viability of a film: No one said that 10 million people have to go see it...10 million tickets have to be sold. We all know that most B5 fans (especially if we're right and JMS delivers big time) will go and see this film at least two times in the theatres. Now think of just how many people live here in the US. At least 10 million tickets will sell, of that I'm confident. Also, you have to consider the not-so-geeky fans out there that haven't and probably won't rush out to buy any DVD box sets but will definately rush out to see any film. I know of at least 5 people who are such fans...correction -- six, at least. Some people just aren't the kind who care to own an entire series on DVD but did love and adore B5.

Now, consider that at least another 10 million will go and see it internationally (although that's a very, very conservative number given the population of the rest of the world). There's double the gross there. Now...some number crunching for ya:

$70 million, divided by an average cost of $70/set gives us one million sets total sold up through S3 and just after. Now that one million divided by 3 for the 3 seasons give us approximately 333,333 box sets sold/season. Even if only those 333,333 people purchase the film DVD that's about 7,000,000 in DVD film sales. That might not sound like much, but you've got to figure that more people will own a film than will buy a series box set...mainly because of the price difference alone. I would easily estimate that at the least half of the people who saw the film will want to own it if it's as good as I think it will be. However, in order to make the match mark for the $80 million I originally estimated for US, Foreign, and DVD each, WB would only have to sell 4,000,000 DVD's. And for a great film, that's easy...since most rental stores, while they won't purchase series box sets for B5 for folks to rent, they will purchase the film. In that light 4,000,000 DVD's world wide is an easy number to hit.

(Oh, and on the ST: NEMISIS argument, while it didn't quite recoup its cost domestically, it more than did so after they added foreign and DVD...so even a "flop" these days like NEMISIS (which also had a lot of negative fan feelings for that franchise going on and a bad release date) still made a tidy profit...and for the studios, that's what counts.)

Sorry, but the math does add up. And those who can't see it and have such little faith in B5 and its fans...and think it's just this little show no one's heard of...you're sadly mistaken.

Even most average, even non-SF people I talk to, know what B5 is to some degree. It is, for lack of a better term, a household name. You will find more people throughout at least what is known as the Western Civilization who know of B5 than you will find who don't.

I live in one of the most red-neck filled and one of the poorer African-American areas of the South, and yet most people even here know of B5 (and you wouldn't think that would be much of the demo for B5). They've seen at least one ep and they might well and probably would go see a great movie about it...but will they rush out to buy the series DVD's? No. That doesn't mean they wouldn't go see a good, exciting film.

You who are naysayers, seem to have little faith in something you yourself love. And you all seem to forget one major thing. WB has people who do the numbers and look at the mass appeal and cult appeal stats. They look at the key demos. And in the end, they've decided that B5 is worth at least one feature film and apparently more given the "in spades" comment JMS made.

WB sees a profit...why cannot the very fans and believers in B5 not see its potential and future? This seriously disturbs me and upsets me...and more so, saddens me.

If you expect it to fail, then fail it will. But I prefer to have faith and know in my heart that Babylon endures. And that someone (suits of all people) seem to have more faith in it than some of its very fans.



"Faith Manages."
CE

 

[rangerPHIL]

I would sum up the B5 fanbase in one word...

LOYAL

And that is what counts folks.

We are going to get a cinematic movie and we should be swinging from the chandaliers.

There may not be as many of us B5 fans as Trekkers but we love our show. So what if it is scoffed at by the liberal shandy drinking geeky buffy trek galactinuts!

It doesn't matter what the Movie is about, frankly I dont care.

Its B5 - and it Kicks Trekkie Arse.

 

[colonyearth]

Hear! Hear! Exactly! Chandalier anyone!?

 

[Ninja_Squirrel]

I live in one of the most red-neck filled and one of the poorer African-American areas of the South, and yet most people even here know of B5 (and you wouldn't think that would be much of the demo for B5).

I live in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. I'm not sure my area is too terribly "red-neck filled", and not all of it is that poor, but it is also in the South and has its share of diversity. I would say that I hear very little people talk about Babylon 5.

I know of one fan at work, one fan at church, one fan I knew way back in high school, and I have three friends who watched the series finale with me when it first aired years ago. Other than that, Babylon 5 does not seem to get a lot of hype or acknowledgement around here.

Granted it does sell well, even around here, but I know of far more people who didn't like it or never heard of it than people who saw it often and liked it. I would feel very alone in my fandom if it were not for this board.

Even most average, even non-SF people I talk to, know what B5 is to some degree. It is, for lack of a better term, a household name. You will find more people throughout at least what is known as the Western Civilization who know of B5 than you will find who don't.

Babylon 5 might be a household name, but I think there are varying shades of gray even within that classification. For instance, I know Sex and the City, Sopranos, Six Feet Under, etc. are very popular shows and are quickly becoming part of popular culture. I even know some of the character names and subplots.

However, I've never seen an episode of any of those shows. I may have the basic acknowledgement that they exist, but I don't have the exposure to them. If they were to do a feature film based on one of those shows, I doubt I would go see it. On the other hand, I'll will be very eager to see the third Star Wars prequel, even though I'm skeptical of it being any good after the last two fiascos. Star Wars is a household name, but it's in the upper echelon of household names (for breadth of popularity, if not depth of quality). I don't think B5 is there yet, even if it deserves to be.

Don't get me wrong, I'm *thrilled* that a feature film is coming, and I sincerely do hope it does well. B5 is my favorite TV show of all time, I doubt anything will every beat it, and I'm sure it will make a great movie.

But, I can understand any skepticism about its success. It will most likely be amazing with JMS at the helm. But the bottom line is will anyone go see it? From the numbers you've done, apparently, they will (and I hope you're very, very right). However, in my experience, within my circle of friends & family, co-workers, church members, etc., I feel like being a Babylon 5 fan makes me an odd man out. Granted, I know in B5 a great story that they don't, but if there's a significant B5 fandom out there, it's apparently not anywhere around me.

 

[KoshN]

It seems that B5 is spread by the fanbase, rather than by advertising. It also seems like it's a little too intricate, and requires too much investment (time-wise, attention wise) for a lot of people to handle. Around here, southwestern Pennsylvania, it's hard to find people who are B5 fans, but easy to find people who are anti-sci-fi or who are permanently turned off by something as superficial as Londo's hair (the actual hair style, not "our" Londoshair. ).

The best way to find B5 fans is to wear your B5 or Crusade baseball caps, B5 jackets, Crusade jackets, etc., although it's getting too warm for the jackets now. I've gotten a lot of favorable responses from wearing my baseball caps, and would wear the Crusade one with the B5 Season 3 jacket to cover all bases.

Wear your B5 ballcaps and you might be surprised how many other B5 fans you meet.

 

[Elenopa]

Hear! Hear! Exactly! Chandalier anyone!?

The last chandelier I was in the vicinity of fell down, six inches behind the priciples of 'The Merry Widow' last week. It was the first night and we were soooooo lucky it didn't hit any one. The chorus came on and cleared up the shattered glass whilst the priciples kept singing.

I think I'll swing from something else thank you.

 

[colonyearth]

Hear! Hear! Exactly! Chandalier anyone!?

The last chandelier I was in the vicinity of fell down, six inches behind the priciples of 'The Merry Widow' last week. It was the first night and we were soooooo lucky it didn't hit any one. The chorus came on and cleared up the shattered glass whilst the priciples kept singing.

I think I'll swing from something else thank you.

Monkey Bars?

 

[hypatia]

Dear. That was good luck that no one got hit by it.

Theater can be sooooooooo much fun.

 

[Elenopa]

I dread to think what would have happened if the chorus had been on stage at the time.

I gave all the principles involved a Jacob award for carrying on without missing a beat.

 

[grumbler]

I agree that currently the B5 torch is carried by a relatively small numer of fans. Not many people carry a torch for a show not even shown on TV anywhere anymore (and what is with that?), ley alone one that hasn't had a successful season in more than five years.

However, I disagree that movies cannot succeed using the B5 mold, where everything isn't explained by the end of the flick. Films HAVE succeeeded both critically and/or popularly when they have lacked complete "closure." In fact, one of the most-acclaimed attributes of TESB was its ambiguous ending.

I have no fears for a JMS movie on this score.

 

[Chris Springob]

Colony Earth says:

So if you figure at the least, 10 million people in the US alone go see the film, that's 10 million times an average of $8.00/seat. That comes to $80 million gross domestically alone. Now triple that to include foreign box office and DVD sales, and a B5 feature film could and will probably bring in approximately $240 million gross (and those are conservative figures).

The average ticket price in the US is closer to $6 than $8. A standard adult ticket for evening showings may be $8, but there are also matinees and discounts for kids, seniors, and a slew of other things. Also, the studio does not get 100% of the gross ticket sale $.

JJCoolbean says:

Do any of you live in a country where more people are aware of the Babylon 5 name over Star Trek? Star Trek re-runs still air around the world (at usually late-night hours) but are they currently running Babylon 5 in China? How about right now in Germany or France?

and Sindatur says:

From what I recall hearing, B5 actually seems to do better internationally than it does in the US.

I think we had a thread that discussed B5's popularity in Europe a few months ago. In it, I said that while I've certainly heard it asserted that B5 is more popular in Europe than the US, I've never seen anyone produce any hard evidence to back up that claim. If I had to guess (based on anecdotal evidence of where people on messageboards like this one are from, discussions with fans, stats I've seen on European viewership of American shows) I'd say that B5 is less popular in Europe as a whole than it is in the US, but that there are huge regional variations. B5 (and American TV in general) seems to be much bigger in Northern Europe than in Southern Europe (which I define as the countries on the Mediterranean--i.e., France, Greece, Italy, Spain... When was the last time you saw someone from Italy post on this board?). In parts of Northern Europe, like the UK, its popularity is similar to that of the US, while in Scandinavia, I think it might actually be bigger than in the US. (As GeoKuutio said, it's bigger in Finland than Star Trek is.)

As I said when posting on this same topic a few months ago, if any actual Europeans want to correct my understanding of B5 fandom in Europe, please do so.

 

[hypatia]

Chris, you are getting into very tricky territory here. I'm no statistician, but you seem to be taking some pretty random input and trying to come to a conclusion.

In what countries has B5 even been shown? Same for Star Trek? Is there any way to actually obtain the data you'd need to "really" test anyone's theory?

I think the general consensus of opinion is: we know what we see in daily life (if that is in Europe, then it's in Europe, if that's on an international messageboard, then that's where that is).

Complete info is probably very hard/impossible to obtain.

Others might know, but I'd like to ask out of curiosity: how many people in Spain post at Star Trek messageboards?

 

[Chris Springob]

Chris, you are getting into very tricky territory here. I'm no statistician, but you seem to be taking some pretty random input and trying to come to a conclusion.

I agree my conclusions are based on completely anecdotal evidence. But if someone else can do better, please do so. What we really need are ratings data to compare between the different countries, but I don't know where to find that data.

In what countries has B5 even been shown? Same for Star Trek?

The Lurker's Guide has a partial list, but it hasn't been updated in years. In any case, if what you're driving at is that it isn't "fair" to compare the show's popularity between a country in which the show has aired and another in which it hasn't, I actually disagree. We're not talking about an idealized universe in which everyone in the world has had an equal opportunity to see the show. We're talking about an imperfect universe, in which some people have had an opportunity to see it, and others haven't. So of course the show will be more popular where it's aired than where it hasn't. That's life.

Others might know, but I'd like to ask out of curiosity: how many people in Spain post at Star Trek messageboards?

Very few. From what I've seen in the last ~10 years of online fandom, the north-south divide in Europe on SF TV boards seems to be there regardless of what show you're talking about (though most of my experience is with B5 and Star Trek).

I'm not saying that "American SF TV shows are less popular in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe" is the only possible explanation, but there's got to be some reason why there's such a discrepancy. Let's leave out Eastern Europe (which lags behind Western Europe economically, so there's a smaller fraction of people online) and the UK and Ireland (because they don't have to deal with the same language barrier as those on continential Europe). If you then compare only the people in the remaining Mediterranean countries with those in countries farther north, it's easy to see that there are far more of the latter than the former on boards like this, despite the fact that the total population of the southern countries is larger. In fact if you compared the per capita number from the "smaller" countries of northern Europe (Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Norway,etc.) to France, Italy, and Spain, I'm guessing the difference is something like a factor of 10. (Germany's probably somewhere in the middle.)

That's a huge difference, and there only so many possible explanations. Part of it could be in the number of people in each country who are online. And in fact, it is true that per capita GDP in northern Europe is somewhat higher than in southern Europe. But I'd be surprised if that's enough to explain the gap completely. More likely, I think, is that it's a difference between larger countries (more in the south) and smaller countries (more in the north). My *guess* is that, because France is a much bigger country than Finland, there's a lot more French TV in France than there is Finnish TV in Finland. (That is, making TV shows in France is easier because there's a much bigger audience.) So a country like Finland is likely to import more of its TV from outside, including shows like Babylon 5. Again, this is just a hypothesis. If someone has a different take on it, I'm eager to hear you out.