I'd say it's just posturing, negotiating tactics.
I don't think so, really. Hawaii is a punishingly expensive place to shoot, and this has been an issue with every series that has ever shot there. It is also a damned inconvenient places for actors and others involved in the production. An actor can't exactly go out on an audition on his lunch hour if he's in Honolulu, whereas he can if he's in Burbank. Same for the crew picking up extra work on indy projects evenings and weekends.
The only thing that has made up for theee problems (apart from the one-of-a-kind scenary) has been the tex breaks. And the people of Hawaii are nuts if they think that if they raise taxes they're going to reap millions of dollars. What they'll precisely do is drive producers out of the islands. It will become too expensive to shoot a weekly eeries there, so
Lost will go immediately. But it will also become more expensive for feature films to shoot there, so a production that might have come for two or three weeks and shot substantial portions of a film there will now blitz through in two or three days, get all the necessary exterior shots with the stars, then leave a skeleton second unit and some stand ins to shoot a little more footage. Because people aren't morons, and they will do what is in their financial best interest - something the "just raise taxes" crowd
never understands. They assume that behavior and tax rates have nothing to do with one another, which is just stupid. (And contrary to all of
history, not that the sort of politician who advocates such policies ever knows any history.)
If Hawaii does this I can assure you that they will see a
decrease in film and TV production and a corrsponding decrease in tax revenue - not only from the mainland producers but from all the local businesses that exist to service the needs of those producers. The catering companies, the prop and lighting rental businesses, the costume houses, and extras talent agencies, all of them will be hurt, some of them will be closed and the state will collect less in tax from them, and their laid-off employees, and spend more on unemployment and welfare benefits for the displaced workers. Yeah, this is a
helluva good plan.
About 20 years ago the governor of New Jersey decided to raise revenues by raising the sales tax on big rig trucks. He damned near destroyed the large truck sales industry in the state. Many old family businesses went under. Meanwhile truck sales boomed in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and upstate New York. The state suffered a net revenue loss because of the decline in business and personal income taxes and the cost of all those folks losing their jobs. When Congress similarly raised the "luxury" tax on yachts, rich people stopped buying the things (because rich people are not, by and large, stupid.) The government collected less money, and shipbuilders were thrown out of work. (American shipbuilders, anyway. Some rich people who just couldn't put off replacing the old yacht simply bought new ones and registered them in other countries.)
If Hawaii does what they're threatening they'll have shot themselves in the foot and maybe we really
will get some of that Hollywood money down here in my neck of the woods.
Regards,
Joe