Question

[bakana]

Andrew, you're missing the point that most of Earth's imports and exports would be in the form of "Information, Arts and Literature".

Movies, books, some types of art and new Songs can be sold as data streams.

Physical goods are usually too expensive to ship to another solar system, even using Hyperspace.

Yes, the Luxury trade has been cut off.

The Creative trade, otoh, might be more intense than ever. Artists tend to create amazing things under threat of death.

You'd also have all the opportunistic SOBs lining up to get the "last works" of these people before the end. Some types of "trade" might actually become more profitable than ever.



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Yes, I like cats too.
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[Demon]

I'm with Andrew on this one. To have credit for creative work moving back and forth you need a banking system, and Earth's banks are likely to have gone bust early on.

Who would leave money in the bank for savings when they're going to die in 5 years? May as well get it out and spend it. There would be a run on the banks that would make 1929 look like a picnic.

With no Earth based banking system, and Earth credits worthless, things are going to be in one hell of a mess.

I think

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Demon

 

[bakana]

That assumes the majority of people just gave up and curled up and waited to Die.

The more likely thing is that they go out and demand that SOMEBODY FIX THIS. NOW.

I'm also quite sure Earthgov would Promise the cure as a sure thing.
They've got literally Nothing to lose by lying.

And a lot less Riots to gain.

Very few people, throughout history, have shown any inclination toward rolling over and giving up.
In fact, many of Humanity's finest hours have been when things looked Totally Hopeless.
And, sometimes they were.
But the majority of peoples, down through history, have been inclined to go down fighting.

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Yes, I like cats too.
Shall we exchange Recipes?

 

[**DONOTDELETE**]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, arial">quote:</font><HR> Andrew, you're missing the point that most of Earth's imports and exports would be in the form of "Information, Arts and Literature". <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I am the one that said that in an earlier post. I am also aware of how small such a trade is. To pay for Earthforce's fleet the profits on the copyright would have to be enormous. After a year or so Earth is going to have the hard currency payment problems that many developing countries had 20 years ago.



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Andrew Swallow

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, arial">quote:</font><HR>Who would leave money in the bank for savings when they're going to die in 5 years? May as well get it out and spend it. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

And just what do you think the stores they were spending it at would do with the money? Burn it? (Hard to do since very little of it would be in cash.) They'd do what they've always done with the day's receipts - deposit them - in a bank. Maybe an off-world bank, like a branch on Mars, but a bank nonetheless. As long as people are still working, eating, paying rent, both banks and economies go on.

Remember, we're talking about five years here - not five months or five weeks. How long could you live without money? Would you spend it all in the first month after plague hits and then spend the next five years until it kills you living in abject poverty, perhaps starving to death before the plague gets you?

In cities like London and Berlin during WWII people went to work, paid their bills, had babies and tried to carry on as normal a life as possible even though thousands were being killed by bombs ever day. That's what people do in such situations - cling to whatever is left of normal life. And save their money - in banks - in the hope that tomorrow will be better.

Folks on Earth know there is a plague, and know that they'll probably die in five years. But they also know that people are working on a cure. Cancer and AIDS patients today generally don't empty their bank accounts and go on a binge when they get the news. They talk to their doctors, find out what the options are and begin treatment, hoping that a cure is found before time runs out for them.

Some of the things you're describing might start up in the last year before the deadline, but not in the first. After the initial panic reaction people would realize that their chances of dying tomorrow are not significantly worse than the were before the plague. (Any one of us could be hit by a bus tomorrow, after all.) And they'd carry on for as long as possible and just hope for the best.

So I think the idea that Earth's economy would immediately collapse is wrong, and the notion that it would somehow depend on physically moving money around is simply ludicrous. Does anybody seriously believe that today's multinational corporations ship cargo containers full of greenbacks and pound notes from continent to continent to pay their employees?

Regards,

Joe

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Joseph DeMartino
Sigh Corps
Pat Tallman Division
joseph-demartino@att.net

 

[bakana]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, arial">quote:</font><HR> To pay for Earthforce's fleet the profits on the copyright would have to be enormous. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Well, do you have any idea just how much Profit today's movies make overseas??

Besides, as we have said, since day to day items are not Valuable enough to ship between Planets, the day to day economy of Earth would not be affected much. The Goods & Services economy would continue as normal.

Comparing THAT portion of the interplanetary economy to the interlocking trade we have between Continents is Wrong. Nike wouldn't be making sneakers on some colony world. Shipping costs are too high.

Luxury items (Caviar & Fur Coat Equivalents), are not a significant portion of any trade between countries, even now. Cutting off That portion of the economy wouldn't bother anyone but the super rich.

It certainly wouldn't cause the economy to crash.

If anything, enormous amounts of money would be getting spent on every possible avenue of research into the Plague. Anyone with three functioning brain cells would be a candidate for some sort of job related to biomedical research. Even Janitors would end up in short supply.



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Yes, I like cats too.
Shall we exchange Recipes?

 

[**DONOTDELETE**]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, arial">quote:</font><HR> So I think the idea that Earth's economy would immediately collapse is wrong, and the notion that it would somehow depend on physically moving money around is simply ludicrous. Does anybody seriously believe that today's multinational corporations ship cargo containers full of greenbacks and pound notes from continent to continent to pay their employees?

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Internal economy or external economy?

The Earth's internal economy would experience a small recession. The external economy would be in total collapse. The nearest equivalents are Britain during World War 2, Rhodesia during the trade sanctions and the UK hotels in foot and mouth areas.

During World War 2 Britain’s exports basically stopped, all the factories were tuned over to armaments. Things were still be rationed in the mid 1950s. The UK financed this by large borrowings. Recently the UK made a repayment to the US under the land lease agreement. The payment was in *gold*.

Since the internal economy is healthy EarthGov would have no problem paying for things like schools and hospitals. Any Gropos people on Earth would also be easy to pay.

The problem is paying the wages of the Earthforce fleet. Officially they are paid in Earth credits, in reality they have to be paid in the currencies of the Minbari, Centauri and Mars. EarthGov's stocks of those are very limited. The amount in banks on Mars and Babylon 5 even more so.

Depending on the exchange rate, Earthforce men may have to live without alcohol whilst on shore leave. Unfortunately the ship's quartermaster does have to buy food, clothing and spares using alien currency. The cheap provisions supplied from Earth have now stopped.

Multinationals may no longer ship large quantities of cash around the world; they use cheques and its electronic equivalent. However, when the cheque bounces people start demanding payment in cash or goods. Ask the finance directors of the dot gones.

In economic terms Hollywood is smaller than it appears. Compare the size of the film industry with the economic size of the USA.

The embargo would have the same effect as tomorrow forcing Hollywood to pay for the cost of the US Navy and Air force. When paying this tax money from US theatres and TV stations cannot be used, only foreign money.



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Andrew Swallow

 

[Demon]

I'm totally with you on this one. In addition to the issues you outlined above, there is also the potential for hyperinflation on Earth. Lack of interest in long term investment and a tendancy to want to have things NOW rather than waiting on an uncertain future is likely to lead to an increase in the money washing around in the economy.

Now whether you are a Monetarist, or prefer a classic supply/demand model, this is going to drive prices up.

This pressure, combined with unknown shifts in demand for goods and services is going to lead to very turbulent economic times.

As Andrew says, Earth is going to find it hard to get credits to pay the crews of its ships in space.

Any thoughts on how the situation on Earth will impact on Mars? How closely would the two planets be linked economically? Would having Earth cut off have an adverse or positive effect on Mars do you think?



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Demon

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

Newly independent colonies like Mars, Proxima and the other Human-settled worlds would likely still be using the single Earth currency, just as the EU has recently moved to the Euro. Why add another complication to an already tricky situation? Earth corporations already have offices on all of those worlds to handle the administrative end of things. As noted in another thread, the human colonies would still need military protection, and odds are that some kind of sharing arrangement has been made regarding EarthForce.

So off-world military personnel can still be paid in Earth credits via the colonies, taxes from both Earth's internal economy and the colony worlds are available to support the fleet, and it is likely that the IA will vote some kind of subsidy to keep one of its constituent military forces up to snuff.

Regards,

Joe

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Joseph DeMartino
Sigh Corps
Pat Tallman Division
joseph-demartino@att.net

 

[A_M_Swallow]

Season 5 Spoiler

<table bgcolor=black><tr><td bgcolor=black><font size=1 color=white>Spoiler:</font></td></tr><tr><td><font size=2 color=black>
Mars has its own currency. One of the things Number One came to Babylon 5 for was to organise was banking facilities.
</font></td></tr></table>

Getting colonies to pay for their own defence - I seem to recall that the UK and its American Colony had a few problems with that. Although Earth/Mars is probably nearer UK/Canada or UK/Irish Republic.

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Andrew Swallow

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, arial">quote:</font><HR>I seem to recall that the UK and its American Colony had a few problems with that.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Actually it wasn't the taxes to pay for British military protection per se that was the problem. It was the fact that we had no say in tax policy because we were not represented in Parliament. Add to that the supression of native industry and manufacturers, restrictions on trade and keeping the colonies as a captive monopoly market for British goods, and you have the ingredients for an insurrection.

In fact, most Americans, before and during the War, weren't especially interested in indpendence. Even Franklin was initially inclined to petition the Crown to defend our rights as Englishman, rather than force a separation. It took some incredibly inept action by George III, Parliament and various royal governors to push the situation into open rebellion. Even then, only about 1/3 of the population was strongly pro-independence. Another third was staunchly loyalist, and the remaining third was neutral.

None of this represents the situation with Earth and it colonies five years after the overthrow of Clark.

Regards,

Joe

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Joseph DeMartino
Sigh Corps
Pat Tallman Division
joseph-demartino@att.net

 

[TrustTheCorps]

I have not seen anyone touch on the psycological ramifications of the Drakh Plague. If financial markets can be adversely affected by mere rumors of problems, (i.e. interest rate hikes, earnings warnings, etc.) what effect would a world devouring illness from that stars have? I daresay that the markets on that first day would crash hard. As Mr. DiMartino suggests, there would probably not be binge spending, but I'm sure there would be a lot of profit taking when news of impending doom was first released. People hedging their bets and all.

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The Corps is Mother; The Corps is Father